WHAT YOU WILL PRACTICE
Write a small experiment with a decision rule before you see the results.
Make the risky assumption explicit
State who you believe will do what, in what situation. “People want automation” is hard to disprove. “Three of five interviewed shop owners will book a trial of a weekly reconciliation service” is observable, although a small sample remains uncertain.
Match the test to the claim
An interview tests the existence and context of a problem. A landing page can test message response. A paid, clearly described manual pilot can test a stronger commitment. Clicks alone cannot test repeat use or profitability.
Set a stopping rule
Write a time limit, effort budget, success threshold and what you will do if it fails. Avoid changing the threshold after seeing the numbers. If the result is ambiguous, explain why and design a better test.
IN PRACTICE · ORIGINAL EXAMPLE
Hypothesis: independent bookkeepers will reserve time for a trial of weekly invoice checking. Test: ask five relevant people for a 20-minute pilot session over one week. Threshold: three bookings. This is a learning test, not a statistically reliable estimate of the market.
Do not use fake testimonials, misleading availability or undisclosed charges to manufacture validation.