WHAT YOU WILL PRACTICE
Write an evidence-based decision memo and a bounded next step.
Keep a short evidence ledger
Record what you observed, what it supports and what it does not establish. Include disappointing signals. Use sample size and context: three pilot users from your network are not a representative market study.
Make the alternatives explicit
Continue the same hypothesis, change the customer/problem/offer, or stop. Stopping a weak idea preserves time for a better one. A pivot should state which belief changed and why.
Fund the next uncertainty
Define a next test and a limit for money or time. Avoid committing to a large build just to recover past effort. Progress is better decisions, not the number of features shipped.
IN PRACTICE · ORIGINAL EXAMPLE
Four people described the problem; two tried the report; one used it again. Decision: test repeat demand for two more weeks before building. Unknowns: who pays, delivery cost and whether the problem occurs outside this network.
Past effort is not evidence of future value. Do not let sunk cost decide the next experiment.